I don’t want to sound like a conspiracy theorist here, because there are plenty of better ones on the blogosphere. But I would like to name some events and facts over the last couple of years that suggest deeper problems in Pakistan than we are ready to deal with.
First – remember Raymond Davis? The American CIA agent who killed two Pakistanis in Lahore? Almost certainly those men were agents of or employed by the Pakistani ISI, roughly equivalent the the US CIA.
Davis was reportedly being intimidated because he was ‘crossing a line’. That intimidation ended bloodily, and the US went to great lengths to get him out of Pakistan.
Now we have wikileaks helpfully informing us that the ISI had been sabotaging efforts to find bin Laden for some time now, hence why they were being circumvented by people like Raymond Davis and why Pakistan was given no warning of the final raid on bin Laden’s compound.
What are the implications of this?
1. It makes me believe there was in fact a high-value target inside Pakistan who was killed on May 2. The tension between intelligence agencies makes it seem as though the CIA had finally had enough of the obfuscating;
2. It makes ISI involvement in the Mumbai terror attacks seem far more likely;
3. It means that Afghanistan and its people will not be safe from the Taliban until the ISI undergoes extreme change. That means the Pakistani government has to be serious about addressing it, and has to feel like it no longer is so threatened that it needs the ISI in its current form. That means that if we really want peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan, we need to address the situation between Pakistan and India.