Montana Politics

The Rasmussen Numbers

Matt already alluded to the the polls, but since they are up at Swing State Project, subscriptions be damned:

It’s ugly. And it’s time to start drafting letters to keep Connie in the race.

Both Tester and Morrison beat Burns (46-43 and 48-43 respectively). Rasmussen also looked at what would happen if Burns dropped out and Denny Rehberg or Marc Racicot replaced him. Those numbers look very bad for us: Rehberg beats Tester by 56-37 and Morrison by 53-41, while Racicot beats Tester by 57-34 and Morrison by 56-36. Ouch. Schweitzer, meanwhile, clocks in with a 73-24 approval rating.

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  • Don, there’s no need to be so pessimistic. These Rehberg numbers are after he’s been ignored by the Montana Dems for years. Expect to see it shift significantly if people really start taking a close look at him.

  • I agree with Matt. Rehberg has been largely ignored, and all the things that everyone has said about Conrad can also be said about Denny. Don’t forget it was Denny who engineered Conrad’s rise to the Senate in the first place, and it was Denny’s connections to the MT GOP (read Leo Giacometto, for example) that led to Conrad employing people with dubious character. Even the Montana Democratic Party, in their fervor over Conrad, has let Denny skate by, ignoring all the obvious connections to the same brand of business Conrad is engaged in. Watch. If he is suddenly in the Senate race, it will all come out, and Denny will go tumbling down.

  • You might be right. When I post on less than 3 hours of sleep, I tend to be a little negative. I feel better after a nap. 🙂

    It will certainly be interested to see what the GOP/Burns do with this information. It’ll also be interesting to see how the Democrats can change their approach, given a potential candidate with lower unfavorables.

    I’m hearing some rumbling about some bigger name Democrats sitting on the sidelines to see how this shakes out on the House side, too. That could be interesting.

    Thanks for the perspective, guys.

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Don Pogreba

Don Pogreba is an eighteen-year teacher of English, former debate coach, and loyal, if often sad, fan of the San Diego Padres and Portland Timbers. He spends far too many hours of his life working at school and on his small business, Big Sky Debate.
His work has appeared in Politico and Rewire.
In the past few years, travel has become a priority, whether it's a road trip to some little town in Montana or a museum of culture in Ísafjörður, Iceland.

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