CJ’s Election Rankings

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The 2016 election is something like 18 months away, but that won’t stop the Calamity Jan writers from pontificating and making predictions. Currently, nine people have filed for statewide office (we’re including Greg Gianforte as having already filed). A number of other names have been thrown around as possible candidates.

We’ve made two lists. One ranks the current candidates. The second ranks larger possible fields of candidates.

These rankings are very scientific. There will be more to come.

GOVERNOR  Party  Edge? Chance of Victory
Governor Bullock Democrat Slight Edge 55%
Greg Gianforte Republican   45%
Mark Perea Democrat   0%
Chris Zarcone Democrat   0%
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Tim Fox Republican Edge 99%
STATE AUDITOR
Jesse Laslovich Democrat Edge 70%
Champ Edmunds Republican   30%
SECRETARY OF STATE
Monica Lindeen Democrat Edge 99%
OPI
Melissa Romano Democrat Edge 99%

Now, if the fields expand with some of the names we’ve heard.

GOVERNOR
Governor Bullock Democrats Slight Edge 55%
Chris Zarcone Republican   45%
Mark Perea Republican   0%
Greg Gianforte Republican   0%
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Tim Fox Republican Edge 99%
Matt Monforton Republican   0%
Dirk Adams Democrat   1%
STATE AUDITOR
Jesse Laslovich Democrat Edge 70%
Champ Edmunds Republican   30%
SECRETARY OF STATE
Monica Lindeeen Democrat Slight edge 30%
Bryce Bennett Democrat   30%
Cliff Larsen Democrat   10%
Corey Stapleton Republican   30%
OPI
Melissa Romano   Slight edge 55%
Elsie Arntzen     45%
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petetalbot
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petetalbot

Interesting. Perea and Zarcone? Not exactly household names. Anyway, you know more than Wikipedia. Here’s what it says:

“Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is eligible to run for re-election to a second term in office. However, there has been some speculation that he may run for President in 2016.”

Huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montana_gubernatorial_election,_2016

Wikipedia also named Taylor Brown, Jeff Essman and Rosendale as possibles. Your guess seems better than theres.

petetalbot
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petetalbot

That should be theirs, not theres (proofread, proofread, proofread).

Greg Strandberg
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Greg Strandberg

I’m not sure how you’ve come to your conclusions, but stating that a Democrat will only get 1% in a race against a Republican for Attorney General is a bit shortsighted.

Calamity Jan
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Calamity Jan

Greg, if you read the post you will see that the percentages reflect the likelihood that each candidate will win the Heneral Election not what percentage of the vote they will be getting. Read as “Chance of Winning.”

David
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David

Lindeen should retire and go home. We don’t need these folks to stay in Helena for years. We passed term limits for a reason. This musical chair stuff must end.

Eric
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Eric

I’m hoping Tim Fox runs against Bullock – it’d be a perfect storm.

Montana’s economy will be feeling the slowdown from the Bakken, and Gov. Bullock has had two sessions to show Montanans how liberal he is. Then add in the NRA ‘F’ grade Bullock has earned, he would go down in flames.

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