Why A Single-Digit Is A Big Deal

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This week John Lewis’ campaign is touting a poll that has the Democrat down by single digits.  The poll shows Lewis trailing State Senator Ryan Zinke by 7% with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Nineteen percent of voters polled were undecided.  That’s a big chunk of voters.

But why would the Lewis campaign be touting a poll that has him down by single digits in August?   Simple: according to the poll, Lewis has already surpassed Kim Gillan’s high-point in the polls during the summer of 2012 even though Gillan had a tough primary and was forced to get up on TV as early as May.  To date, Lewis has not aired a single TV ad.  Instead, he’s been able to stockpile his money for the sprint to the finish that lies ahead of him.

Lewis is nipping at Zinke’s heals.

Additionally, Zinke’s name ID is surprisingly low and so is his lead.  Zinke made it out of a brutal primary this June but was forced to spend $1.5 million, which left his campaign bruised and bankrupt.   The least Zinke could have hoped for was that spending all that money would have given him a substantial boost in the polls – but it didn’t.

Instead, Zinke has Lewis nipping at his heals.  All the while, Lewis has been able to stockpile campaign funds giving him a six-to-one cash advantage over Zinke.

Expect this one to go until the buzzer.

If you appreciate an independent voice holding Montana politicians accountable and informing voters, and you can throw a few dollars a month our way, we\'d certainly appreciate it.

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