Montana Politics

John Lewis Will Make the House Race Competitive

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I don’t normally write about the horse race aspect of politics, preferring to leave that to the press, but I think Montana Democrats should be encouraged by the positive developments coming from the John Lewis campaign.

The latest good news is that national Democrats believe that Lewis can win the race, as evidenced by his selection on the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” list, races where national Democrats believe that we can flip a Republican seat because of  “smart campaigns which are becoming increasingly competitive.”

That perception supports the analysis of Stu Rothenburg, who said that Lewis made Montana one of the 12 House seats most likely to flip in 2014.

Democrats might be inclined to believe that this House seat is a Republican one, given the relatively wide margins of victory Republicans have enjoyed in recent years, but statewide success by Democrats, combined with an energetic campaign, give Lewis the best chance to recapture Pat Williams’s seat since Nancy Keenan ran.

We’ve got reason to be optimistic here. We have the opportunity to win back a seat from the extremists who’ve badly represented Montana since I was in college.

There’s another reason to be optimistic about Lewis’s chances: Republicans are likely to elect a candidate who will be badly bloodied in a primary and unlikely to run well in a general election. Where Steve Daines had the luxury of running as a stealth conservative, the candidate who wins the GOP primary this year is going to have to chew on some red meat, often and in public, to win the nomination. The candidate who emerges will not be ably to credibly appeal to Independent Montana voters, who will be crucial to winning the race.

My best guess is that the Republican candidate will be the ethically-challenged Ryan Zinke, whose SuperPAC money will prove more valuable than all the loans Stapleton, Arntzen, and Rosendale can give themselves—and Montanans have already seen the kind of campaign Zinke will run.

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About the author

Don Pogreba

Don Pogreba is an eighteen-year teacher of English, former debate coach, and loyal, if often sad, fan of the San Diego Padres and Portland Timbers. He spends far too many hours of his life working at school and on his small business, Big Sky Debate.

His work has appeared in Politico and Rewire.

In the past few years, travel has become a priority, whether it's a road trip to some little town in Montana or a museum of culture in Ísafjörður, Iceland.

5 Comments

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  • well since you’re working for Lewis Don, I can see why you would want this naive article to be taken seriously….. How many years since Montana has had a liberal House Rep? You can believe in the Eastermonkey if you want, still unlikely to be true.

  • Well, there’s still 7 days left to file. Is anyone challenging Lewis?

    I don’t know much about it, probably like a lot of people. Zinke seems too slick for his own good, in my estimation.

    Really, it’s just another race I’m having a very hard time to get excited about.

    • FD, you’re words fill me with a swelling pride in our accomplishments as man, or new found discoveries in math and science, and our ability to overcome our baser instincts.

      FD, let me be the first to suggest that you, good sir (or madame) run for office.

      You may or may not know, FD, that there is still a few days left to file for many of our statewide offices. With your cunning wordplay and use of punctuation, I think you’d make a fine addition to many areas of the state sorely lacking in firm leadership and principles we can count on.

      FD, do the right thing – make us all proud!

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