My Entirely Unremarkable Prediction Post

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PRESIDENT

  • Barack Obama: 292 EV (49.4%) Should be higher, but FL ’12 is going to make FL ’00 look honest.
  • Willard Romney: 246 EV (48.9%)

US SENATE RACE

  • Jon Tester: 48.5%
  • Dennis Rehberg: 48.1%
  • Dan Cox: 3.1%

US HOUSE RACE

  • Kim Gillan: 44%
  • Steve Daines: 55%

MT GOVERNOR (Most likely recount election)

  • Steve Bullock: 49.4%
  • Rick Hill: 49.2%
  • Ron Vandevender: 1%

ATTORNEY GENERAL

  • Pam Bucy: 47%
  • Tim Fox: 53%

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

  • Denise Juneau: 54%
  • Sandy Welch: 45%

STATE AUDITOR

  • Monica Lindeen: 59%
  • Derek Skees: 41%

SECRETARY OF STATE

  • Linda McCulloch: 52%
  • Brad Johnson: 48%

MONTANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

  • Democrats: 38
  • Republicans: 62

MONTANA SENATE

· Democrats: 25
· Republicans: 25

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About the author

Don Pogreba

Don Pogreba is an eighteen-year teacher of English, former debate coach, and loyal, if often sad, fan of the San Diego Padres and Portland Timbers. He spends far too many hours of his life working at school and on his small business, Big Sky Debate.

His work has appeared in Politico and Rewire.

In the past few years, travel has become a priority, whether it's a road trip to some little town in Montana or a museum of culture in Ísafjörður, Iceland.

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Don PogrebaRob KaileyPete TalbotBig Johanssonlarry kurtz Recent comment authors
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Craig Moore
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Craig Moore

I see you give Fox the edge over Bucy 53-47. I agree. I also agree with your predictions for Auditor, SPI, and SoS. R’s will take the rest.

larry kurtz
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Anyone else wondering why @ppppolls did not include Gary Johnson in their sampling? They didn’t in Toke’s state of Colorado either.

Big Johansson
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Big Johansson

Don’s is right 1 for 5 or 20%

So we can give him 2 out of the 10 above.

Pete Talbot
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Pete Talbot

I like your thinking, Don. Hope you’re right. You have Bucy in bold but at only 47%. The 47% was a typo, right? Fox would be way bad news as AG.

Rob Kailey
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Rob Kailey

That is the one race I’m most concerned with.

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