Remember that terrible poll conducted by 47 North Communications a few weeks back that claimed that Denny Rehberg was going get 25% of the voter of Montana Democrats? The one whose numbers didn’t even add up to 100% and which contained a demographic makeup of Montana entirely at odds with recent electoral history and even a second poll by 47 North a few weeks later?
To be blunt, the poll was crap. Hell, I don’t have any reason to believe that they didn’t just pick the numbers out of thin air—or concoct a result that was most favorable to their old boss. Both of those explanations would make a great deal more sense that the results they claimed.
The latest poll on the race, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling for the Lee Newspapers, bears that out. In a race they call a virtual tie, with Tester leading 46-45, exactly 1% of Democrats supported Rehberg, a number that seems maybe a little high, but just about right.
This is going to be a race about turnout and independents, and it’s got to be a good sign for the Tester camp that the Senator leads among Independents by 12 points already.
Two lessons, one obvious, and one increasingly apparent: this is going to be an incredibly close race, at least until the public learns more about the difference between these two men and no one should take any polling done by 47 North seriously. They’re a joke, and a bad, partisan one at that.