Montana Politics

About that 2012 Senate Poll

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There’s been a lot of talk today about the poll that shows Denny Rehberg leading Jon Tester 47-44. I don’t have a great deal of confidence in the poll, given its questionable breakdown Republican (46%), Democrat (36%) and Independent (14%) voters, but if the numbers are to be believed, I’d be very happy I was Jon Tester.

Sure, he’s behind by a statistically insignificant margin, but the critical numbers are the Democrat and Independent crosstabs. There is absolutely no way that Tester is only getting 65% support from Democrats, or even more clearly, that one in four Democrats will vote for Representative Rehberg. It just won’t happen—and Rehberg’s even more reactionary rightward list will only make that better for Tester.

This is going to be a tough contest, but Senator Tester can absolutely send Rehberg back to raise his subdivision plots on the ranch.

Of course, full disclosure by the Northern News Network might have included mentioning that the firm in charge of the polling is headed by Rehberg’s former state director and the discredited former Executive Director of the Republican Party.

Update: MT Cowgirl adds more details about this entirely suspect poll.

About the author

Don Pogreba

Don Pogreba is a seventeen-year teacher of English, former debate coach, and loyal, if often sad, fan of the San Diego Padres and Portland Timbers. He spends far too many hours of his life working at school and on his small business, Big Sky Debate.

His work has appeared in Politico and Rewire.

In the past few years, travel has become a priority, whether it's a road trip to some little town in Montana or a museum of culture in Ísafjörður, Iceland.

14 Comments

  • I find it just a WEE bit more than coincedental that Dopey Reeburp decided to run just SHORTLY after the Koch/Bircher Brothers had their big get together in Florida. Hmm. Wonder if THAT might have had something to do with the Dopester's decision to run? Seems that maybe, just maybe, the Big Kochs see an opportunity to pick up an easy senate seat! And really, who is MORE cheesy, sleazy, easily manipulated, and venal than Dopey?! He's the perfect dupe!

    We must watch this one carefully. I can't recall offhand the amount that Bircher Brothers front groups spent in Wisconsin to get Snot Walker elected, but it was HUGE!, and all spent on negative ads!

    We must INCESSANTLY and CONTINUALLY remind Montana voters when the negative ads starting coming in just WHO is behind this stuff. Do we REALLY want to be another Wisconsin? Bought and paid for for the Bircher Brothers? I think not. We must fight back all the way. I think it can be done.

  • OK – they didn’t bother to vote four months ago, but somehow Jon Tester will inspire them to get out and vote?

    I don’t think so.

    The Great Leader will be on the top of the ballot, and I believe his coattails will be negative votes for Dems, assuming he continues doing the things he does.

    And I expect that Testers record of being a ‘Yes Man’ for Obama/Reid/Pelosi, and his two votes for Obamacare will be well-publicized, and that all his campaign lies/promises will be thoroughly re-hashed next year.

    I believe that Jon Tester will do a little better than McDonald – but not much.

    • “OK – they didn’t bother to vote four months ago, but somehow Jon Tester will inspire them to get out and vote?”

      Can a person run a less inspiring campaign than McDonald did? Also, do you think maybe the Republican party repeatedly ignoring the will of Montanans this legislative session will work for or against Denny?

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