There’s been a lot of talk today about the poll that shows Denny Rehberg leading Jon Tester 47-44. I don’t have a great deal of confidence in the poll, given its questionable breakdown Republican (46%), Democrat (36%) and Independent (14%) voters, but if the numbers are to be believed, I’d be very happy I was Jon Tester.
Sure, he’s behind by a statistically insignificant margin, but the critical numbers are the Democrat and Independent crosstabs. There is absolutely no way that Tester is only getting 65% support from Democrats, or even more clearly, that one in four Democrats will vote for Representative Rehberg. It just won’t happen—and Rehberg’s even more reactionary rightward list will only make that better for Tester.
This is going to be a tough contest, but Senator Tester can absolutely send Rehberg back to raise his subdivision plots on the ranch.
Of course, full disclosure by the Northern News Network might have included mentioning that the firm in charge of the polling is headed by Rehberg’s former state director and the discredited former Executive Director of the Republican Party.
Update: MT Cowgirl adds more details about this entirely suspect poll.