A Plausible Election Scenario?


I was playing around with the Yahoo Election dashboard today, and in making my own scenario stumbled onto this as my first set of selections.

It actually seems plausible to me. Any obvious spots where I have the wrong candidate favored stand out here?


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About the author

Don Pogreba

Don Pogreba is an eighteen-year teacher of English, former debate coach, and loyal, if often sad, fan of the San Diego Padres and Portland Timbers. He spends far too many hours of his life working at school and on his small business, Big Sky Debate.

His work has appeared in Politico and Rewire.

In the past few years, travel has become a priority, whether it's a road trip to some little town in Montana or a museum of culture in Ísafjörður, Iceland.


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  • Wow… no… there are a number of places where I wanted to say “maybe not” but all of them are logical… can we top 2000? Yes we can!

  • Plausible, yes. Likely … not so much. Maine splits it’s votes by district, one of which appears incurably Republican. Edge – McCain. However, Montana and even North Dakota are in play, this time around. Even if McCain takes Ohio, Colorado, Nevada *and* Virginia (not likely) North Dakota swings the vote to Obama. Serious edge – Obama.

    I think it would be worthwhile to remember the election of 1996. Dole looked a whole lot closer than he ended up. The exit polling showed one glaring reason for people having switched their minds last minute. ‘Holy cow, the dude’s OLD!’ McCain may have the Lipstick Pitbull going for him, but holy cow. The dude’s old. And only the hardest core are going to spend the next 50+ days thinking how ‘cool’, neat’ and ‘hot’ it would be to have Palin running the country. That’s the problem with using fear as a motivator; it can cut back on you.

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