Montana Politics

Ugly Poll Numbers for Conrad

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While the sample size is pretty small, the numbers look pretty grim for Conrad Burns. A pollster hired by the Keenan campaign lays it out:

  • Only 29 percent of Montana voters believe Burns deserves to be re-elected, with 60 percent thinking it’s time to give someone else a chance and 11 percent undecided, the poll found.
  • Thirty-two percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents favored giving someone else a shot at the job.
  • “That is among the lowest ‘deserves re-election’ percentages we have recorded for an incumbent in a quarter-century of polling,” Ayres said.

Both Tester (48-42) and Morrison (50-40) are shown beating Burns in the poll.

These numbers should probably be taken with a grain of salt, given a relatively small sample of 600 voters (not identified in the article as likely voters), but  there sure isn’t anything good for Burns in these numbers. Keenan certainly isn’t going to catch up with Burns before the primary, but I think the big picture for Burns is that it’s hard to see how he can dramatically increase his appeal, given his track record with the state. No matter who the Democratic nominee is, Burns is going to have to keep going negative–and that is unlikely to build support.

I’d still love to see a good poll comparing Tester and Morrison among likely Democratic voters. Anyone have anything?

About the author

Don Pogreba

Don Pogreba is a seventeen-year teacher of English, former debate coach, and loyal, if often sad, fan of the San Diego Padres and Portland Timbers. He spends far too many hours of his life working at school and on his small business, Big Sky Debate.

His work has appeared in Politico and Rewire.

In the past few years, travel has become a priority, whether it's a road trip to some little town in Montana or a museum of culture in Ísafjörður, Iceland.

1 Comment

  • That poll has those numbers. They’re just wildly skewed by MOE. It’s 35-28, which is great for Tester. Morrison’s internal numbers a couple months ago had Morrison up 37-20. Slipping from a 17-point lead to a 7-point lead is a rough go for Morrison.

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